El optimismo, el estudiante, el síndrome y el genio de la lámpara

El optimismo, el estudiante, el síndrome y el genio de la lámpara

Estimaciones Dirección de proyectos_Daniel Echeverría

A la hora de hacer estimaciones de la duración de  nuestros proyectos… nos encontramos con cuatro tipos de problemas (por lo menos). Veamos cuáles son.

El síndrome del estudiante

 Los miembros del equipo pueden tener tiempo adicional para hacer la tarea pero esperan hasta el último minuto para empezarla justificándose con el hecho de que “¡¡tranquilo, jefe, que la tarea tiene un colchón!!” pero a veces un problema imprevisto surge, se necesita hacer trabajo extra y, como el colchón ya nos lo hemos comido… pues llegamos tarde y las últimas lecciones del examen las dejamos (poniendo dos velitas a nuestro santo preferido para que no caigan en el examen). 

La ley de Parkinson

 Esta ley afirma que el trabajo se expande hasta ocupar el tiempo disponible para su realización. Si para un trabajo nos dan un mes, nos llevará un mes. Si para el mismo trabajo nos dan una semana, lo haremos en una semana. El miembro del equipo, aunque pueda, no lo acabará antes –para que no le pillen y digan de él que como estimador es un inútil o, lo que es peor, demostrará que es capaz de hacerlo antes y en el próximo proyecto tendrá que volver a hacerlo en ese tiempo-.

La multitarea

 Esto nos afecta más a los hombres que a las mujeres ya que, por lo que dicen los sesudos neurosicólogos, neurocientíficos y los neuro-lo-que-sea, los hombres somos incapaces de hacer (bien) dos cosas a la vez (mi mujer, graciosa… dice que yo sí: mascar chicle y otra) y las mujeres sí.

 Bromas (reales) aparte, las compañías valoran más a los trabajadores que son capaces de trabajar en varios proyectos a la vez para así maximizar su rendimiento. Pero esto lleva a que tras una hora, saltemos de una tarea de un proyecto a otra, y tras hora y media saltemos a una tercera,… y así hasta el infinito.

 Pero cada cambio de tarea requiere volverse a concentrar, refrescar lo que estábamos haciendo y volvernos a concentrar en la actividad. Y ello lleva a que si le dedico hora y media, el rendimiento real sea mucho menor –por algún sitio he leído que hasta un 40% menor, por lo que de la hora y media, únicamente una hora sería de trabajo-.

Dirección de proyectos_Daniel Echeverría

El optimismo

 Las estimaciones optimistas, casi siempre, bueno, siempre, son fruto de la ignorancia, la inconsciencia o el autoengaño (y en este caso tenemos un tipo peligroso en la oficina).

 Y, tras esto, Goldrath el Grande

 Los colchones fruto de un análisis de riesgo en cambio sí son serios, pues son fruto del conocimiento de fiabilidad de la duración y se justifican y documentan.  Pero Goldrath (1997) –aprovecho para recomendar a quien no lo haya leído, su libro “La meta” (The Goal)” un clásico que no pierde vigencia sino que, como los buenos vinos, gana con los años- proponía que esos colchones se juntaran todos en un gran “colchón de proyecto” y que las tareas no tuvieran ningún tipo de reserva de tiempo, ni siquiera las derivadas del análisis de riesgos. Que cada responsable de tarea la hiciera en el menor tiempo posible (pero bien hecha), el tiempo definido por una estimación lo más real posible, sin maquillajes ni siliconas.

 De esta manera, utilizando estimaciones reales optimistas, se rompía el círculo vicioso de la estimación por el cual, al utilizar estimaciones hinchadas o hinchables, nunca se sabía realmente cuánto tiempo llevaba la tarea y las lecciones aprendidas y el conocimiento de la empresa seguía basándose en esas duraciones.  Ahora, se sabía exactamente el tiempo de duración, si no se cumplía se veía porqué había sido, se aprendía del error (que no es ningún pecado) y, así, la empresa era cada vez más lista y más eficiente.

 Si eres un buen project manager, todo ese saber lo tendrás estudiado al día sin dejarlo para el final (y nunca tendrás el síndrome del estudiante ni aplicarás la ley de Parkinson), estimarás bien la duración de las actividades y cómo no, documentarás todos los cálculos e hipótesis de partida que haya utilizado en la estimación para que, si cambian las condiciones, pueda valorar la implicación de esos cambios y, en caso de que sea un tercero quien finalmente lleve el proyecto, tenga la información para revisar, validar y actualizar si procede.

 ¿Sacamos la bola del mago?

1 Comment

  1. Jose Huerta dice:

    ¡Los colchones los carga el diablo!
    Y lo peor de todo es que una persona no formada «aprenderá» a usarlos de forma natural y le costará ver el lado oscuro de los colchones.
    Os dejo un artículo profundizando sobre uno de los cuatro puntos: el optimisto: http://gestionati.es/gestion/proyectos/costes/estimacion-miope

  2. VERAgog dice:
    Tu comentario está pendiente de moderación. Esto es una vista previa, tu comentario estará visible cuando se apruebe.

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  4. SARAgog dice:
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